URP 210 — Urbanisation and Population Studies: Lecture Note

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LA-NET | ONLINE LEARNING VIDEO PLATFORM FOR POST-SECONDARY & HIGHER INSTITUTION STUDENTS

LA-NET | ONLINE LEARNING VIDEO PLATFORM FOR POST-SECONDARY & HIGHER INSTITUTION STUDENTS Course code: URP 210 Course title: Urbanisation and Population Studies Course credit load: 2 Units List of Series: Series 1: World Population Growth and Demographic Characteristics Series 2: Population Composition, Movements and Trends Series 3: Methods of Population Estimation and Forecasting Series 4: Urbanisation Processes and City Development in Africa Series 5: Urbanisation and African Economic Development 1 World Population Growth and Demographic Characteristics Series outline Part 1 (1.1): Concepts and Scope of Population Studies Sub-Part 1.1.1: Definition and scope of population studies Sub-Part 1.1.2: Relationship between population studies and urban planning Sub-Part 1.1.3: Key demographic concepts and terminology Part 2 (1.2): World Population Growth History and Trends Sub-Part 1.2.1: Historical overview of world population growth Sub-Part 1.2.2: Stages of the demographic transition model Sub-Part 1.2.3: Current and projected global population trends Part 3 (1.3): Demographic Characteristics Fertility and Mortality Sub-Part 1.3.1: Concepts and measures of fertility Sub-Part 1.3.2: Concepts and measures of mortality Sub-Part 1.3.3: Natural increase and its planning implications Part 4 (1.4): Population Distribution and Density Sub-Part 1.4.1: Patterns of world population distribution Sub-Part 1.4.2: Population density concepts and measurement Sub-Part 1.4.3: Factors influencing population distribution Introduction Population is the foundation of all planning. The size, growth, composition, and distribution of a population determine the demand for housing, services, infrastructure, and land. A planner who does not understand how populations grow, where they are concentrated, and why they move is ill-equipped to anticipate needs, allocate resources, or design cities that serve their inhabitants well. Population studies therefore form an indispensable part of the urban and regional planner's knowledge base.

LA-NET | ONLINE LEARNING VIDEO PLATFORM FOR POST-SECONDARY & HIGHER INSTITUTION STUDENTS The aim of this Series is to equip you with the knowledge and skills to define key demographic concepts, describe patterns and trends in world population growth, explain the characteristics of fertility and mortality, and analyse the distribution and density of the world's population. We shall commence this Series by introducing the scope and key concepts of population studies and their relevance to planning. Next, we will trace the history of world population growth and examine the demographic transition model. Following that, we will explore the demographic characteristics of fertility and mortality and their planning implications. Finally, we will wrap up by examining the patterns, measurement, and determinants of population distribution and density across the globe. Series Learning Outcomes Upon completing this Series, you should be able to: SLO 1.1 define population studies and explain its key concepts and relevance to planning, SLO 1.2 describe the history of world population growth and the stages of the demographic transition model, SLO 1.3 explain the concepts and measures of fertility, mortality, and natural increase, SLO 1.4 analyse the patterns, measurement, and determinants of world population distribution and density. 1.1 Concepts and Scope of Population Studies 1.1.1 Definition and scope of population studies Population studies, also referred to as demography, is the scientific study of human populations, including their size, composition, distribution, and change over time. It examines the processes that drive population change births, deaths, and migration and analyses their causes and consequences for society, the economy, and the environment. The scope of population studies is broad, encompassing both formal demography, which focuses on statistical measurement, and social demography, which examines the social and economic factors that shape population behaviour. For planners, population studies provides the quantitative and analytical foundation for forecasting future demand and designing responsive environments. Fill in the blank: Demography examines the processes that drive population change, namely births, deaths, and __________.

LA-NET | ONLINE LEARNING VIDEO PLATFORM FOR POST-SECONDARY & HIGHER INSTITUTION STUDENTS Short description: Image of a world population map showing population size by country or region using shading or proportional symbols. Plate 1.1 World population distribution by country 1.1.2 Relationship between population studies and urban planning Urban and regional planning is fundamentally concerned with the organisation of space to meet human needs. The scale of those needs for housing, schools, hospitals, roads, water, and sanitation is directly determined by population size and growth. Population projections form the basis of master plans, structure plans, and infrastructure programmes. Understanding demographic trends such as ageing, urbanisation, and household size changes enables planners to anticipate shifts in demand and design flexible, future-proof solutions. Without a sound demographic foundation, planning decisions risk being either wasteful or inadequate. Fill in the blank: Population projections form the basis of master plans, structure plans, and infrastructure __________. 1.1.3 Key demographic concepts and terminology Several key terms underpin the study of population. Population size refers to the total number of people in a defined area at a given time. Population growth rate measures the rate at which a population is increasing or decreasing as a percentage per year. Birth rate (or crude birth rate) is the number of live births per 1,000 people per year. Death rate (or crude death rate) is the number of deaths per 1,000 people per year. Natural increase is the difference between the birth rate and the death rate. Net migration is the difference between the number of people entering and leaving a place. Together, these measures describe and explain population change. Fill in the blank: Natural increase is the difference between the birth rate and the __________ rate.

LA-NET | ONLINE LEARNING VIDEO PLATFORM FOR POST-SECONDARY & HIGHER INSTITUTION STUDENTS Pilot questions 1.1 Which of the following best defines demography? Which of the following is not a driver of population change? What is the crude birth rate? Fill in the blank: Population projections enable planners to anticipate shifts in __________ for services and infrastructure. 1.2 World Population Growth History and Trends 1.2.1 Historical overview of world population growth For most of human history, world population grew very slowly. It is estimated that the global population reached its first billion around 1800, having taken hundreds of thousands of years to reach that milestone. Thereafter, growth accelerated dramatically: the second billion was added by 1930, the third by 1960, and subsequent billions at progressively shorter intervals. By 2023, the world population had surpassed eight billion. This acceleration is primarily attributed to improvements in public health, nutrition, sanitation, and medical technology, which dramatically reduced death rates without an immediate corresponding fall in birth rates. Fill in the blank: World population growth accelerated primarily due to improvements in public health, nutrition, sanitation, and medical __________. Short description: Line graph showing world population growth from prehistoric times to the present, illustrating the rapid acceleration from the industrial revolution onwards. Figure 1.1 World population growth over time

LA-NET | ONLINE LEARNING VIDEO PLATFORM FOR POST-SECONDARY & HIGHER INSTITUTION STUDENTS 1.2.2 Stages of the demographic transition model The demographic transition model (DTM) describes the historical shift in populations from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates as countries undergo economic and social development. The model comprises four stages. In Stage 1, both birth and death rates are high and population is stable. In Stage 2, death rates fall while birth rates remain high, causing rapid population growth. In Stage 3, birth rates begin to fall as societies modernise, slowing growth. In Stage 4, both rates are low and population stabilises. Some scholars add a Stage 5 in which death rates exceed birth rates, causing population decline, as observed in some European countries. Fill in the blank: In Stage 2 of the demographic transition model, death rates fall while birth rates remain __________, causing rapid population growth. 1.2.3 Current and projected global population trends Global population growth is projected to continue, though at a slowing rate. The United Nations projects that world population may reach approximately 9.7 billion by 2050 and could peak at around 10.4 billion in the 2080s before stabilising or declining. Growth is increasingly concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa, which is expected to account for more than half of global population increase through 2050. Meanwhile, many high-income countries face population ageing and natural decrease. These diverging trends have profound implications for planning, development policy, and global resource allocation. Fill in the blank: Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to account for more than half of global population __________ through 2050. Pilot questions 1.2 When did world population reach its first billion? Which factor most contributed to accelerating world population growth from the 19th century? Fill in the blank: In Stage 3 of the demographic transition model, __________ rates begin to fall as societies modernise. Which region is expected to contribute most to global population growth through 2050? Which of the following describes Stage 4 of the demographic transition model? 1.3 Demographic Characteristics Fertility and Mortality 1.3.1 Concepts and measures of fertility Fertility refers to the actual reproductive performance of a population the number of live births that occur. It is distinct from fecundity, which refers to the biological capacity to reproduce. The most commonly used measure is the crude birth rate (CBR), expressed as the

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